The Obama administration is "reprogramming" some funds to Egypt while
a review is underway -- in effect, temporarily holding up some military
aid to the country, a U.S. official said.
A spokesman for Sen.
Patrick Leahy, David Carle, confirmed to CNN his office has been told
the aid has been halted. Leahy, a Vermont Democrat, is chairman of the
Appropriations State and Foreign Operations Subcommittee.
The United States gives about $1.23 billion in military aid to Egypt.
But the U.S. official emphasized no decision has been made to permanently halt the aid.
The move means the
administration has taken temporary steps that ultimately allow it to
move forward on either of two scenarios: pressing ahead with the aid or
cutting it off. The source would not detail how the aid was being
redirected.
Once a decision has been
reached about the best approach, the official said, the administration
will consult with Congress about how to move forward.
Reporter Josh Rogin with the Daily Beast first reported the United States has quietly suspended the aid.
What it means
The move provides the administration with a quick "on/off" switch.
Under the law, if the
United States were to designate the situation in Egypt a "coup," the
U.S. couldn't restore aid until a democratic government is established. A
coup determination would not be temporary.
But if the U.S.
"reprograms" funds, it can withhold the aid as long as it thinks doing
so would be in its best interest. The United States could restore the
aid without needing a legal determination that a democratic government
has returned to Egypt. If, for example, Egypt stops the bloodshed, the
aid could quickly resume.
At a White House
briefing Monday, spokesman Josh Earnest said, "That's the purpose of
these reviews: to determine what impact it would have on our national
security, whether it's in compliance with the law, and is it going to
get us closer to seeing the kind of outcome in Egypt that we would like
to see, which is the prompt return to a democratically elected, civilian
government in Egypt."
Earnest said the U.S.
involvement with Egypt extends beyond the military relationship and
includes influence at the International Monetary Fund as well as on
tourism, "which has a significant impact on the Egyptian economy."
'Damned if you do...'
More than half of Americans in a new poll believe the United States should halt military aid. But the situation is complex.
"The United States is
kind of in a 'damned if you do, damned if you don't' situation," said
Tarek Radwan, associate director for research at the Atlantic Council.
Analyst Jon Alterman said the issue centers on what Washington wants to accomplish.
"If you are trying to
change the decision-making process of the Egyptian military -- that is
very hard to do right now because they believe they are locked in an
existential struggle," said Alterman, Middle East program director at
the Center for Strategic & International Studies,
"If what you are trying to do is demonstrate our resolve to the rest of the world and people looking on, that is another issue."
But the aid isn't
one-sided. The United States has been granted preferential use of the
Suez Canal -- an economic hub that connects the Mediterranean and the
Red Sea.
It also has overflight rights, which gives the U.S. military the ability to fly over Egypt on the way to bases in the region.
Will cutting aid do anything?
Cutting aid will
probably not accomplish much, some experts say -- particularly because
Saudi Arabia has said it would consider matching the U.S. assistance if
the Obama administration decides to cut it.
"Our Congress is not
about to compete with that amount of money in Egypt," said Isobel
Coleman, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. "(The
Saudis) have deep pockets, and they are ready to put them in Egypt's
disposal."
But Radwan said there
could be a net effect. If the United States diversifies its engagement
with Egypt, "not only the Obama administration, but any administration
after would have for more policy flexibility," he said.
More turmoil
As U.S. officials mull
the next steps, Egyptian security forces may have upped the ante in its
ongoing conflict with supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood.
On Tuesday, security
forces arrested Mohamed Badie, the Muslim Brotherhood's spiritual
leader, at an apartment in Cairo, state-run Nile TV reported. Badie is
accused of inciting violence.
Clashes between security
forces and supporters of ousted President Mohamed Morsy have been
deadly. Over the past week, about 900 people -- citizens and security
personnel -- have been killed.
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